Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
