Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Data

The average figure of everyday murders per month in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new administrative statistics. However, security specialists have warned that murder figures might not signal enhanced national stability.

Marked Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen over these past months is remarkably important,” the President remarked, adding that last month the smallest number of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Violent cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key components of the President's security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, security analysts urged caution that relying on homicide statistics to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it might obscure periods when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to voice their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst said.