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Only 48 hours before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump previously went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he does so then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.