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At first, the former US president gave the impression to take a resolute position regarding Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "serious consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing ceasefire talks, the former president ultimately introduced major restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially affected Putin's capacity to support his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly created by American and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Aggression

This initiative would in practice benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although strong declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", much of the proposal in reality undermine that same independence. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business experience, the former president seems to treat the war as a basic border issue, as if giving Putin a section of Ukrainian land will appease the president. But, Putin's war is not only about controlling a destroyed swath of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it stops functions as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the democratic government that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Border Concessions

While maintaining in place the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would require the nation to abandon all of Donetsk province. In addition to benefiting Russia with land that its military have been failed to seize in over a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that are a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital should he subsequently opt to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a move that would make additional conflict simpler for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative imposes no such restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "Every Nazi doctrine and actions must be condemned and prohibited." As if to emphasize this element, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. However, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent agreements in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should the international community believe this commitment now?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on international defense commitments. While the proposal warns of a "decisive unified defense action" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics include fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not just block Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the security presence, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Putin from replenishing his diminished forces, rearming, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional side agreement according to sources would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a military response. However unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best protection against renewed hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the dedication of alliance members, like Trump, to act with force to Putin's aggression, something they have {not